Showing posts with label scalping systems. Show all posts
Showing posts with label scalping systems. Show all posts

Friday, November 21, 2008

ForexGen Day Trading Secrets - the Biggest Secret of All!

You will see them all over the net forex day trading and scalping systems offering you a regular income and the potential to earn money from the secrets they have discovered - but here is one secret you won't find revealed by these vendors. To find out what it is read on.

Forex scalping and forex day trading systems all lose - want the proof? Read the disclaimer below you will see it or a similar one on ALL the systems sold so here it is:

"CFTC RULE 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown".

So you have probably gathered what the above means - the forex day trading systems you see with huge regular profits have NEVER been traded. They have been simulated on past data - knowing where prices went.

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Friday, November 7, 2008

Beware of Curve Fitting or Lose!

Forex scalping systems are more popular than ever and they all come with great track records, which have unbelievable gains and their very tempting for novice traders but what they need to be aware of is - curve fitting which ensures that most scalping systems lose money.

Curve fitting is when a vendor bends his system to fit the data.

When the vendor can't get the system to work, he keeps adding more rules and parameters in until it does, by bending the system to fit the data or curve fitting. He then has a track record he is satisfied with or more to the point gives him a great track record he can sell.

What happens next?

No two periods of data are going to exactly replicate themselves and the system simply collapses and loses in real time trading.

LOOK FOR THIS DISCLAIMER!

The buyer scratches his head and wonders why - but if he looked for this on the track record he can find out if its curve fitted. Look for the disclaimer below (or similar) on any system you buy - this is standard CFTC one.

"CFTC RULE 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown".

If you are looking at buying a forex scalping system from a vendor, beware there all curve fitted.

You will NEVER find one with a real time track record, as forex scalping simply doesn't work by the very nature of the logic its based upon.

The time period is simply to short.

All volatility in daily or hourly time frames is random - support and resistance is meaningless and prices can and do go anywhere in a day. It's impossible to get the odds in your favor and forex day traders always lose long term.

Of course it makes a good story and naïve and greedy traders buy it and vendors know this.

They simply tell the story add a simulated track record and appeal to their greed - it's a big industry.

If you want to trade forget forex, forget scalping systems or day trading and trade longer time periods, where you can get the odds in your favor.

Leave forex scalping systems to the dreamers and greedy traders, get the right forex education and enjoy currency trading success by using longer time frames and valid data.
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Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Forex Scalping for Beginners - Learn This Simple Fact or Lose!

This article is all about forex scalping for beginners and a key fact you need to learn, if you are thinking of incorporating it in your forex trading strategy - If you don't understand this fact, you are 100% guaranteed to lose, so here it is...

Forex scalping is based on dumb logic and doesn't work. Before we look at why, lets dispel the myth that vendors selling scalping systems make money - they don't. You will always see this with any track record - read it carefully:

"CFTC RULE 4.41 - Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown".

Personally I think the above should be banned and vendors should NOT be able to present track records that are not real, as they are totally meaningless.

Let's face it who couldn't make money knowing the closing prices?

My little Niece could beat George Soros (and she's only 9) if she knows the closing prices! The problem is we can all be multi millionaires quickly with this info - but trading forex is a little harder, we have to trade not knowing the prices in advance.

Check any forex scalping track record you like and you will see the above or a similar disclaimer. I did see one that printed the vendor's bank statements as proof the system made money but that profit was probably from selling systems not trading!

Of course there were no supporting broker statements.

So why is forex scalping destined to lose?

Think about how prices are determined:

Millions of traders all with different systems, motivations etc all as a mass group decide the price and you CANNOT Predict what this group will do in a matter of hours.

All short term volatility is random in nature, you cannot use short term levels of support and resistance, so you cannot get the odds in your favor and you therefore cannot win at forex scalping and that's a fact.

Forex scalping and day trading is an area where you won't make money, so don't bother trying. If you must trade short term use forex swing trading - its still short term but you can get the odds in your favor and that's what you need to win at forex trading.

Today there are many vendors who simply lie about the profit potential of forex scalping and hope the naïve or greedy trader falls for it - make sure you don't.

Forex scalping always reminds me of the old burger king ad where they claimed to have more beef in their burgers than McDonald's and in the ad the man picked the burger up and said:

"Where's the beef?"

In forex scalping terms translated means:

Where is the real audited track record?

To be fair it's not a fair comparison.

There was of course beef in the McDonalds burger - but you won't find any profits in the track record of a scalper, just a made up track record done without trading!

So our lesson is in terms of forex scalping for beginners - forget it, try a different way of making money in forex and if you want to trade short term - try swing trading.

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