Falling Property Values Add to Fla. Budget Woes

Falling Florida property values may increase next year's state budget gap

Falling property values and a rising foreclosure rate may contribute to a growing gap in next year's state budget, the Florida Legislature's top economist said Monday.

State economists recently cut their forecast for 2009 property taxes -- based on the taxable value of properties for school purposes -- by about 5 percent since their last estimate in August.

The Legislature requires school districts to levy a minimum property tax rate -- this year about $5 per $1,000 of taxable value -- to qualify for state funding.

If lawmakers leave that requirement unchanged in 2009-10, it'll bring in nearly $462 million less than this year, said Amy Baker, coordinator of the Legislature's Office of Economic and Demographic Research.

That's in addition to a previously forecast $3.8 billion gap for the next budget year, which begins July 1, due to declining general revenue -- mostly sales tax. The gap is based on what it would take just to keep existing programs going and pay for other "musts" such as Medicaid, public schools and prisons.

"It certainly produces a lot more stress for the budget writers," Baker said.

Lawmakers' options are to increase the required school tax rate, put more state money into public schools, cut education spending or a combination of those alternatives, she said.

The situation is expected to get even worse in the next two years. With the same required tax rate, the shortfall would be $604.5 million in 2011 and $731 million in 2012.

Dropping home prices and the growing number of foreclosures are two major factors driving down the property tax forecast, according to an executive summary accompanying the estimate. It notes a third-quarter estimate by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight showed Florida's homes dropped 16 percent in value compared to the same period last year.

October statistics from the Florida Association of Realtors showed a 24 percent drop in value compared to the same month in 2007.

Foreclosure filings are estimated at up to 360,000 for this year, double the number in 2007 and four times as many as six years ago.

The new property tax estimate will not affect the current state budget, which has its own problems. The latest forecast is for $2.3 billion deficit.

House and Senate budget committees this week will be discussing what to do about the current year deficit and next year's growing budget gap.

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Deflation Keeps Credit Tight, Treasurys Popular

With deflation still a possibility, credit markets have a hard time loosening up

Investors know the future will bring either inflation or deflation, but they can't decide which. So they're erring on the side of a worst case scenario, keeping the credit markets in a stranglehold and Treasury notes extremely popular.

Despite a moderate rise in the stock market Friday, the yield on the two-year Treasury note hit another record low, falling to about 0.76 percent for the first time since the note has been issued.

Adding fuel to the argument that the economy is headed for deflation, the Labor Department said its Producer Price Index, which tracks costs of goods before they reach consumers, fell 2.2 percent last month -- more than anticipated -- as gasoline and other energy prices retreated.

Government debt becomes more attractive in weak, deflationary economies not only because the assets are safe, but also because the returns are in fixed dollar amounts -- so when deflation occurs, they actually rise in value. This reduces the incentive, to some extent, to buy riskier, higher-yielding assets like junk bonds.

"The main driver of the credit markets, at one level, is inflation versus deflation," said Jack A. Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. When there's inflation, Treasurys become less attractive and investors look for assets that will offer higher returns.

The outlook for prices is murky right now, keeping investor demand for safety high and hurtling rates on riskier debt higher and higher. The government's huge issuances of debt should cause inflation, but a steep, prolonged recession would be deflationary. It's a quandary that's paralyzing investors.

"Are we really going to get significant deflation? If we are, it has one set of implications, and if we're not, it has an opposite set of conclusions. It's kind of a binary environment right now," said Jay Mueller, portfolio manager, Wells Fargo Advantage Funds.

"If we have severe deflation, Treasurys are going to continue to be the preferred place to be," Mueller said. However, "it's hard to make these determinations because we don't have much track record to go on."

The last sustained period of deflation in the United States was during the Great Depression. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note's yield, at 2.58 percent on Friday, isn't that far off the yield on similar debt in the 1930s -- a little over 2.1 percent, according to Global Financial Data in Los Angeles. (Later, in 1945, yields fell as low as 1.55 percent.)

But the 10-year note's yield could have a lot farther to fall if Japan is any indication.

After Japan's stock and real estate bubble burst in the late 1980s, the nation went into a very long slump, and yields on the Japanese government's 10-year note in 2003 fell as low as 0.46 percent, according to Mueller.

"Japan has had 10 years of deflation at this point. I doubt that it's in the cards for us, but it does show how low yields can go in a deflationary environment," Mueller said.

Yields on longer-dated Treasurys continued to hover near their recent historic lows. The 10-year note rose 8/32 to 110 6/32 and its yield fell to 2.58 percent from 2.66 percent. The 30-year bond rose 16/32 to 128 1/32 and its yield fell to 3.05 percent from 3.08 percent.

The three-month Treasury bill's yield was 0.04 percent, up from 0.01 percent but still indicating high levels of demand for safe, short-term assets. The discount rate was 0.02 percent.

As investors swarm to government debt, they are also starting to snap up mortgage-backed securities -- which is helping actual mortgage rates fall -- and some are buying high-grade corporate debt again.

But speculative grade, or junk, bonds are seeing demand tumble even further.

"One of the things I'm a little worried about with high yields is it's a self-sustaining situation," Ablin said. A company's ability to get new funding is reliant on their rating, and their rating is reliant on their financial health. There's a worry, Ablin said, that the junk bond market "collapses on itself."

Over the past month, bonds for investment-grade companies have gained more than 4 percent, according to the iShares Investment Grade Bond Fund, but junk bonds have fallen more than 11 percent, according to the Lehman High Yield Bond Exchange Traded Fund.

And when prices fall, rates rise, making it more expensive for the companies to issue debt. Standard & Poor's said Friday that speculative-grade rates, as compared to Treasury rates, broke through records Thursday, surpassing 17 percentage points.

About half of all rated companies have a junk rating.

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Serbian Currency Hits All Time Low Against Euro

Serbia's currency on Wednesday dropped to an all-time low against the euro despite repeated central bank interventions to support it on foreign exchange markets.
The dinar traded down at 90.59 per euro -- from highs of 75.75 a euro on Aug. 7 -- even though the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) on Tuesday sold euro10 million ($12.7 million) on financial markets to offset the strong demand for foreign currencies.

The NBS sold more than euro600 million to buy dinars on the foreign exchange market since late September to stop the fall of the national currency, triggered by the global economic crisis and worries over Serbia's economy.
"We are not spending foreign currency reserves, but withdrawing dinars" from the market, Serbia's central bank Governor Radovan Jelasic said Wednesday.

Since late September, the dinar has fallen about 15 percent against the euro and 25 percent against the dollar. On Wednesday, the Serbian currency for the first time broke through the psychologically important barrier of 90 dinars per euro.

Economists say the currency's slide is caused by the reduced influx of foreign capital through credit and investment, the growth of risk premiums, the imbalance between supply and demand, and panic withdrawals of foreign currencies from private savings accounts.

Serbs have withdrawn about euro1 billion from their bank accounts since October.

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ADP Employment Report Shows Most Job Losses Since 1991

The ADP employment report for November showed that the private sector reduced their payrolls by 250,000 which were the most since November, 2001. Goods producing firms led by dropping 158,000 jobs as manufacturing activity has grinded to a halt. Indeed, the forecast for the Non-farm payrolls report is expected to show total job losses for the month at 325,000. However, given the private sector over shot its initial forecast by 45,000 the total losses could be greater.

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ForexGen | Trading the Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate

EUR/USD:

Growth prospects for the Euro-Zone is expected to weaken further as market participants forecast the unemployment rate to increase to 7.6% from 7.5% in September. Economic activity has weakened considerably throughout the second half of the year as the economy slipped into a recession in the third quarter.

What’s Expected
Time of release: 11/28/2008 10:00 GMT, 05:00 EST

Primary Pair Impact : EURUSD

Expected: 7.6%

Previous: 7.5%

Effect the Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate had over EURUSD for the past 3 months

September 2008 Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate

The jobless rate in the Euro-Zone held steady at 7.5% for the second straight month as widely expected, but may push higher over the following months as growth prospects deteriorate throughout the second half of the year. Economic activity contracted 0.2% in the second quarter as firms reduced spending, and may slip into a technical recession in the third quarter as market participants expect growth to contract for the second consecutive quarter. Fading demands from the global economy paired with the downturn in the financial market has certainly stoked fears for a worldwide recession, and business may cutback costs even further as credit conditions remain far from normal. The spillover effects of the credit crunch has certainly taken a toll on the real economy, and economic activity may remain subdued well into the next year as the major economies throughout Europe teeter on the brink of a recession.

August 2008 Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate

The Euro-Zone unemployment rate increased to 7.5% from a revised reading of 7.4% in July as the economy teeters on the brink of a recession. Employment opportunities have weakened considerably throughout the second half of the year as demands from home and abroad falter, and conditions may only get worse as economic activity weakens throughout Europe. Deteriorating fundamentals paired with the drastic slowdown in the global economy sparked fears that the euro-region could face a severe economic downturn as the spillover effects of the credit crunch continues to take a toll on the real economy. Despite the severity of the financial crisis, the European Central Bank is widely expected to hold the benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25% at tomorrow’s policy meeting, but may switch gears in the months ahead as falling oil prices curb the upside risks for inflation.

July 2008 Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate in the Euro-Zone held steady at 7.3% for the third consecutive month, which was inline with expectations. However, fading confidence among businesses paired with slowing demands from the global economy could raise the jobless rate over the coming months as the growth outlook turns dim. Business sentiment slipped to -0.33 from a revised reading of -0.20 in July as demands from home and abroad weakened throughout the second half of the year. Retail spending fell 0.6% in June, followed by a 0.3% decline in industrial new orders, and economic activity may weaken further as trade deficit widened to 3.0B from 1.0B in August. Despite the downturn in the economy, the European Central Bank continued to hold a neutral policy stance as they held the benchmark interest rate steady at a seven year high of 4.25% as policymakers carry out their one and only mandate to ensure price stability.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Growth prospects for the Euro-Zone is expected to weaken further as market participants forecast the unemployment rate to increase to 7.6% from 7.5% in September. Economic activity has weakened considerably throughout the second half of the year as the economy slipped into a recession in the third quarter, and firms may continue to cut payrolls as demands from home and abroad deteriorate. Manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in November to record its biggest monthly decline in nearly a decade as the PMI reading slipped to 36.2 from 41.1 in October. In addition, service-based activity in the Euro-Zone weakened as well, which led the composite PMI to reach a record low reading of 39.7 from 43.6 in the previous month. Moreover, industrial new orders plunged 3.9% in September, followed by a 1.5% decline in the prior month, while retail spending slipped 0.2% during the same period. The data suggests that employment opportunities will become increasingly scarce as economic activity falters, and the economy may face its worse recession in 15 years as firms continue to hold a dour outlook for growth. Business confidence plunged in November to reach its lowest level since 1993 as the index slipped to -2.14 from -1.34, while the economic outlook slipped to a 15 year low of 74.9 from 80.0 in October. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is widely expected to lower the benchmark interest next week by 25bp to 3.00% from 3.25% as price pressures alleviate, but could be forced to ease policy further as economic activity deteriorates at a record pace. The interest rate outlook for the ECB could stoke increased selling pressures for the euro over the near-term as market participants expect policymakers to hold a dovish outlook well into the next year, but volatility may spike throughout the financial markets as traders in the U.S. are offline to celebrate Thanksgiving.

Trading the given event risk may not be as clear cut as some of our other trades as we expect trading volume in the currency market to fall as the U.S. observes a national holiday. Nevertheless, we would need a considerable improvement in the jobless rate to yield a bullish euro position for the scheduled event, and reading of 7.3% or lower would certainly set the stage for a long EURUSD trade. With an improved reading, we will look for a green, five-minute candle following the improved release to confirm an entry on two lots of the euro-dollar. We will place our initial stop at the nearby swing low (or reasonable distance), and this risk will determine the target for the first lot. Our second target will be based purely on discretion, and to preserve our profits, we will move the stop on the second lot to breakeven once the first trade reaches its target.

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Research and Markets: Gain an Insight into C.R. Bard, Inc. and the U.S. Surgical and Medical Instrument Manufacturing Industry with this Detailed Company Profile

Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "C.R. Bard, Inc. and the U.S. Surgical and Medical Instrument Manufacturing Industry" company profile to their offering.

The C.R. Bard, Inc. company report details the company's key financial data, business operations, technology and patent activities, financial benchmarks against the Surgical and Medical Instrument Manufacturing industry in the U.S., and that industry's pertinent information such as financial data, downstream industries, competitive landscape, upstream industries, and industry structure.

This company report provides a breadth of information on the company and its relevant industry in the U.S. - Surgical and Medical Instrument Manufacturing industry, represented by the 6-digit NAICS code 339112. The report first presents the company data, and then presents industry data in a similar, logical flow for the reader to draw relevant comparisons. The complete understanding of the company and its industry allow for better forecasting of specific and industry-wide trends in times of economic uncertainty. This detailed information resource contains at least 5 years of independently researched industry statistics cross-referenced with the relevant U.S. and international economic indicators. All data have been verified to ensure the highest quality.

This 94-page research report provides an unparalleled breadth and diversity of information on C.R. Bard, Inc. and its relevant industry. The two-part presentation of data, company and industry, paints the most complete picture of the company and its business. The summary of the company's operations and structure, backed up by crucial financial numbers, allows one to quickly understand the company. And the inclusion of hard-to-find data such as sales by segment, patent activities, subsidiary listings, and executive compensation further enhance this research.

The industry data, with a macroeconomic perspective, provides the indispensable context of the arena in which the company operates. This unique insight is provided by the enclosed sections covering the industry. In the cost analysis section, 61 upstream industries are analyzed to offer insight into the supply chain cost structure. For the channel and pricing structure, 27 downstream industries are analyzed. The competitive landscape section provides the number of companies and their revenue share within the industry, the market concentration, and a list of major players. All related trade associations, industry standards, and trade publications are also listed.

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Company Revenue Preview

C.R. Bard, Inc. generated $2,202M, $1,980M, and $1,768M worth of revenue in the fiscal years ending approximately December 31, 2007, 2006, and 2005. In those respective years, the company's gross profit margins were 60.7%, 61.2%, and 61.6%.

Excel Datasheet

The data presented in the report is also included in an Excel file for further analysis and data manipulation. It includes all of the company's financial data presented in the report (income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement, segment data, financial ratios), executive compensation, subsidiary listing, USPTO patent activities (dates, application numbers, abstracts), and links to SEC filings. This valuable resource provides the freedom and convenience to conduct further research into the company at your will, be it data-mining or integration into forecast models.

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ForexGen | Philippine Economy Slows to 4.6 pct in 3rd Quarter

Philippine economy "damaged but not quite ravaged" by global crisis as quarterly growth slows

The Philippine economy grew a sluggish 4.6 percent in the third quarter, slumping from 7.1 percent last year, after being "damaged but not quite ravaged" by the global financial crisis, the government said Thursday.

Industry grew at a faster rate of 7.1 percent from 6.6 percent a year earlier, but the services sector -- the linchpin of the economy with a 49.2 percent share of gross domestic product -- contracted 3.7 percent.

"The Philippine economy has been damaged but not quite ravaged by the global financial turmoil and high oil prices," the National Statistical Coordination Board said in a statement.

The board said a seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate of 0.9 percent "kept the Philippine economy outside of recession territory."

Socio-economic Planning Secretary Ralph Recto said he didn't think the Philippines would slip into a recession next year and expected fourth quarter growth between 4 percent and 4.6 percent, compared with 6.4 percent last year.

He said the government would continue ramping up public spending, especially infrastructure projects, while increasing revenue collection.

The government expects 2008 growth of between 4.1 percent and 4.8 percent, down from 7.2 percent in 2007.

Central bank Gov. Amando Tetangco said he expected inflation in November to fall within a range of 10.3 percent to 11.2 percent, compared with 11.2 percent in October.

He said the price of rice and other foods continued to fall due to higher supply and favorable weather conditions

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