Thursday, December 18, 2008

A look at Economic Developments Around The World

A look at economic developments, activity in stock markets around the world Thursday


A look at economic developments and stock-market activity around the world Thursday:

TOKYO -- The yen weakened slightly against the dollar after a dramatic surge in recent days, as Japan warned of possible intervention in the foreign exchange market and ahead of an expected rate cut by the country's central bank. The pause in the yen's climb came as Tokyo strengthened its language on the possibility of intervening to limit the currency's strength and protect Japanese exporters. Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa told reporters he would "implement appropriate measures" regarding the yen's gains. "For export manufacturers the acceleration of the strong yen is a negative factor," he said. The Bank of Japan, which began a two-day policy meeting on Thursday afternoon, was widely expected to cut interest rates from the current 0.30 percent, probably by half, which could also cause the yen to weaken as investors sold the currency and sought better rates elsewhere. The Nikkei 225 stock average climbed 54.71 points, or 0.6 percent, to 8,667.23.

LONDON -- British auto manufacturers stepped up pressure on Prime Minister Gordon Brown's government to deliver an industry bailout package as a report revealed that car production slumped by a third in November. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders warned that crumbling domestic and export demand would lead to extended plant closures and job cuts as production falls, leaving Britain unprepared for improved economic conditions. The industry body wants the government -- which has confirmed it is in talks with Jaguar Land Rover's Indian owner about possible financial support -- to move quickly to restore demand and loosen tight credit conditions. Meanwhile, official figures showed British retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.3 percent from October to November, even as government debt hit its highest in almost a quarter century and a survey indicated half a million households will be behind in mortgage payments next year. Britain's FTSE-100 closed up 0.2 percent at 4,330.66.

FRANKFURT, Germany -- Business confidence in Europe's biggest economy fell to its lowest point in over a quarter century in December as the global economic crisis stanched near-term prospects. The Munich-based Ifo Institute said that its monthly index of German business sentiment slipped to 82.6 points in December from 85.8 points in November. It was last that low in November 1982, and has fallen more than 20 points in the last year. The survey said that the business climate for manufacturing -- a key segment of Germany's economy -- cooled considerably. Germany's DAX rose 48.02 points, or 1 percent, to 4,756.40.

BEIJING -- China cut prices for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. The price of diesel will fall by 18 percent while the price of gasoline is cut by 13.8 percent, effective Friday, according to the country's planning agency. Jet fuel prices will fall by 32 percent. The cuts will help trucking companies, airlines, factories and others that are being squeezed by high fuel prices and a slump in sales. The price cuts come as Beijing is trying to revive falling economic growth but the announcement made no mention of a link with its stimulus measures. It said prices were cut to reflect a decline in global oil costs. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index climbed 2 percent, or 38.87 points, to 2,015.69. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index recovered near the end of the session to add 0.2 percent to 15,497.81.

PARIS -- Bernard Madoff's alleged $50 billion investment fraud demonstrates the absolute necessity of better regulation of financial sectors, the French prime minister said. Francois Fillon called the affair "a real scandal" and said it "clearly shows that the regulatory reform we've been calling for ... is absolutely necessary." His comments on Europe-1 radio came after France's market regulator said late Wednesday that French investors may have lost "several hundred million euros" in the scam through mutual funds with indirect exposure to Madoff's funds. The CAC-40 in France was down 0.2 percent at 3,234.15.

SEOUL, South Korea -- South Korea said it plans to establish a 20 trillion won ($15.5 billion) fund with central bank support next year to help shore up banks and encourage them to lend. The fund, set to start operations from Jan. 1, is aimed at helping lenders boost their capital adequacy ratios by purchasing certain shares and bonds, the Financial Services Commission announced. Participation is available to banks on a voluntary basis, according to the commission, which serves as South Korea's financial regulator. Meanwhile, brawling South Korean lawmakers tried to sledgehammer their way into a parliamentary meeting room barricaded by the ruling party as the National Assembly descended into chaos over a free trade agreement with the United States. Opposition parties were incensed by the ruling Grand National Party's move to submit the agreement to a committee on trade, setting in motion the process for the accord to win approval in the legislature. The opposition attempt failed, and 10 GNP legislators introduced the bill to the committee. The Kospi closed up 0.5 percent at 1,175.91.

STOCKHOLM, Sweden -- Swedish lawmakers approved a 28 billion kronor ($3.6 billion) aid package to help prevent the country's auto industry from collapsing. The plan includes 20 billion kronor in credit guarantees, 5 billion kronor in rescue loans and 3 billion kronor in research funds. It does not include options to buy troubled brands such as Ford Motor Co.'s Volvo or General Motors Corp.'s Saab. Ford has said it intends to offload Volvo, by either selling it or spinning it off into a separate company, and General Motors has said it is performing "a strategic review" of Saab.

KIEV, Ukraine -- About 1,000 angry Ukrainians rallied in the Ukrainian capital, protesting price increases, wage delays, utility cutoffs and other effects of the economic crisis gripping this ex-Soviet nation. Inflation has ravaged the economy and the hryvna has lost half its value since the global financial meltdown began in September. Adding to the tensions, Russia's state natural gas monopoly, Gazprom, warned on Thursday it will cut gas supplies to Ukraine on Jan. 1 if it fails to pay off a $2 billion gas debt.

BRUSSELS, Belgium -- Euro-zone trade swung into a surprising surplus in October, the EU statistics agency said, even as a stronger euro and tumbling demand abroad tamps down exports from the recession-hit 15-nation economy. The euro-zone reported a trade surplus of 900 million euros ($1.27 billion) in October from a year ago after posting a 4.5 billion euros ($6.36 billion) deficit in September. Euro exports of 141.2 billion euros ($199.65) were up 1 percent in October compared to the same month last year. This outpaced imports, which were up 3 percent to 140.3 billion euros ($198.37) -- bucking a general trend in which euro nations now import more than they export. Meanwhile, BayernLB, the first German bank to seek state help, won EU approval for a 10 billion euros($14.14 billion) cash injection from the German government to help it survive the financial crisis. Germany has promised to put forward a restructuring plan for the bank within four months, it said. The bank already plans to slash 5,600 jobs -- 29 percent of its staff -- by 2013 and close offices outside Germany which will help it reduce costs by euro670 million.

MOSCOW -- The ruble ratcheted downward as the Russian Central Bank again loosened its defense of the currency, which is under constant pressure from declining oil prices and increasing economic woes. The depreciation was the second in as many days, the third this week, and the eighth since Nov. 11, when the bank began backing off support of the ailing national currency. The bank manages the value of the ruble against the dollar and euro, and has sought to let it fall in value more slowly than it would have under free market conditions.

SINGAPORE -- In a news conference here, World Bank President Robert Zoellick called on Asian governments to reject raising tariffs and other trade barriers in response to the global economic slowdown. Zoellick decried the failure of the Doha round of World Trade Organization talks and urged countries to maintain open trade policies. Asian economies, most of which rely on exports to drive growth, have suffered from a fall in demand from developed countries. While most countries in the region expect to avoid recession, they've all seen growth slow this year.

MUMBAI, India -- Lower fuel prices have pushed India's inflation down sharply, the Ministry of Commerce said, as the government tried to scrape together more funds to stimulate the country's flagging economy. The wholesale price index -- India's most-watched inflation measure -- hit 6.8 percent for the week ended Dec. 6, down from 8 percent for the prior week. This time last year, inflation was just 3.8 percent.

SANTIAGO, Chile -- A six-year cycle of rapid economic growth in Latin America will come to an end next year because of the global economic slowdown, a U.N. agency predicted. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean said growth will fall to 1.9 percent in 2009 from 4.6 percent this year. Falling international demand for Latin America's commodities is stalling economic growth in the region, according to a presentation by commission Executive Secretary Alicia Barcena. In afternoon trading, Chile's IPSA was nearly flat at 2,349, while Argentina's Merval index lost 0.7 percent to 1,140 and the Bovespa in Brazil lost 0.5 percent to 39,763. Mexico's IPC gained 1.5 percent to 22,889.

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Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Analysis In Forex


Do Your Forex Analysis Via Forex Charting Techniques
If you engage in Forex trading, you’re going to also have to learn how to do forex charting. Before we talk about forex charting, let’s first talk a little bit about what forex trading is and how you do it.

Forex trading is done in the forex market, also known as the foreign exchange market. With the foreign exchange market, you don’t trade in stocks or bonds; instead, you trade in what are called currency pairs. That means that you pick one currency from one particular country and determine whether or not it’s going to do better or worse against another country’s currency.
There are several things you study to determine whether a particular currency is going to do well or not. Chief among these is how well a country is doing, socially, politically and economically. For that, you use something called fundamental analysis.

With technical analysis, though, you read forex charting that tells you how a particular currency is trending. Is it going up, going down, or staying the same against the other currency in your pair? Has it been doing so for a while, or has it been volatile?
Once you’ve been trading in Forex enough so that you know the ropes, you can make predictions based upon what your forex charting tells you. If a currency has been doing well for a while, it’s likely that it’s going to continue to do well for at least the time being. If it’s going down, then it may be time to get out of that particular trade.
When you begin to "trade" in Forex, you should do so at first by establishing something called a "demo" or practice account with the forex trader you pick. With demo trading, you can do everything the average forex trader does, only you don’t have to use real money. This lets you practice without risking any money until you fully know your way around the forex market and feel comfortable risking your own money in trades.

That leads us to an important point. With forex trading, you are absolutely taking a risk when you do trades. It is indeed a very lucrative market for those who know what they’re doing, but you still are not guaranteed that you’ll make money. For this reason, demo trading also lets you do something very important. It lets you psychologically get used to losing money.
That’s an important point as well, because even the most successful forex traders do lose money sometimes. Absolutely no one wins on every single trade. Because Forex trading does require a cool head, you’re going to have to learn to leave your emotions out of the equation. That means if you’re winning on the trade, you need to read and analyze charts carefully to determine whether or not you should get out even if the trade is still doing well. By the same token, you should know when to get out of a trade that’s losing instead of staying in, in hopes that she’ll make the money that you’ve lost back.

A lot of practice and the proper Forex charting techniques can make you a successful trader, too, as long as you know what you’re doing and can handle yourself. Many people have made a successful sideline or even livelihood out of Forex trading, and you may be one of them.

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Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Yen Technical Outlook

It is still possible that last Friday’s spike down to 88.10 provides more significant support but it is best to stick with the strategy I have employed over the past number of months.

That is, keep moving the stop down as price decreases because longer term charts argue for a drop below 80 in order to complete a long term 5 wave drop that began in the 1970s. “In viewing the rally from 88.10, I am more inclined to stay bearish. The rally is not clearly impulsive (which would mark a probable trend change), so there is little reason to flip from bearish to bullish. In fact, the rally counts best as a double zigzag correction.” Move risk to 92.

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Monday, December 15, 2008

Falling Property Values Add to Fla. Budget Woes

Falling Florida property values may increase next year's state budget gap

Falling property values and a rising foreclosure rate may contribute to a growing gap in next year's state budget, the Florida Legislature's top economist said Monday.

State economists recently cut their forecast for 2009 property taxes -- based on the taxable value of properties for school purposes -- by about 5 percent since their last estimate in August.

The Legislature requires school districts to levy a minimum property tax rate -- this year about $5 per $1,000 of taxable value -- to qualify for state funding.

If lawmakers leave that requirement unchanged in 2009-10, it'll bring in nearly $462 million less than this year, said Amy Baker, coordinator of the Legislature's Office of Economic and Demographic Research.

That's in addition to a previously forecast $3.8 billion gap for the next budget year, which begins July 1, due to declining general revenue -- mostly sales tax. The gap is based on what it would take just to keep existing programs going and pay for other "musts" such as Medicaid, public schools and prisons.

"It certainly produces a lot more stress for the budget writers," Baker said.

Lawmakers' options are to increase the required school tax rate, put more state money into public schools, cut education spending or a combination of those alternatives, she said.

The situation is expected to get even worse in the next two years. With the same required tax rate, the shortfall would be $604.5 million in 2011 and $731 million in 2012.

Dropping home prices and the growing number of foreclosures are two major factors driving down the property tax forecast, according to an executive summary accompanying the estimate. It notes a third-quarter estimate by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight showed Florida's homes dropped 16 percent in value compared to the same period last year.

October statistics from the Florida Association of Realtors showed a 24 percent drop in value compared to the same month in 2007.

Foreclosure filings are estimated at up to 360,000 for this year, double the number in 2007 and four times as many as six years ago.

The new property tax estimate will not affect the current state budget, which has its own problems. The latest forecast is for $2.3 billion deficit.

House and Senate budget committees this week will be discussing what to do about the current year deficit and next year's growing budget gap.

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Sunday, December 14, 2008

Deflation Keeps Credit Tight, Treasurys Popular

With deflation still a possibility, credit markets have a hard time loosening up


Investors know the future will bring either inflation or deflation, but they can't decide which. So they're erring on the side of a worst case scenario, keeping the credit markets in a stranglehold and Treasury notes extremely popular.

Despite a moderate rise in the stock market Friday, the yield on the two-year Treasury note hit another record low, falling to about 0.76 percent for the first time since the note has been issued.

Adding fuel to the argument that the economy is headed for deflation, the Labor Department said its Producer Price Index, which tracks costs of goods before they reach consumers, fell 2.2 percent last month -- more than anticipated -- as gasoline and other energy prices retreated.

Government debt becomes more attractive in weak, deflationary economies not only because the assets are safe, but also because the returns are in fixed dollar amounts -- so when deflation occurs, they actually rise in value. This reduces the incentive, to some extent, to buy riskier, higher-yielding assets like junk bonds.

"The main driver of the credit markets, at one level, is inflation versus deflation," said Jack A. Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. When there's inflation, Treasurys become less attractive and investors look for assets that will offer higher returns.

The outlook for prices is murky right now, keeping investor demand for safety high and hurtling rates on riskier debt higher and higher. The government's huge issuances of debt should cause inflation, but a steep, prolonged recession would be deflationary. It's a quandary that's paralyzing investors.

"Are we really going to get significant deflation? If we are, it has one set of implications, and if we're not, it has an opposite set of conclusions. It's kind of a binary environment right now," said Jay Mueller, portfolio manager, Wells Fargo Advantage Funds.

"If we have severe deflation, Treasurys are going to continue to be the preferred place to be," Mueller said. However, "it's hard to make these determinations because we don't have much track record to go on."

The last sustained period of deflation in the United States was during the Great Depression. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note's yield, at 2.58 percent on Friday, isn't that far off the yield on similar debt in the 1930s -- a little over 2.1 percent, according to Global Financial Data in Los Angeles. (Later, in 1945, yields fell as low as 1.55 percent.)

But the 10-year note's yield could have a lot farther to fall if Japan is any indication.

After Japan's stock and real estate bubble burst in the late 1980s, the nation went into a very long slump, and yields on the Japanese government's 10-year note in 2003 fell as low as 0.46 percent, according to Mueller.

"Japan has had 10 years of deflation at this point. I doubt that it's in the cards for us, but it does show how low yields can go in a deflationary environment," Mueller said.

Yields on longer-dated Treasurys continued to hover near their recent historic lows. The 10-year note rose 8/32 to 110 6/32 and its yield fell to 2.58 percent from 2.66 percent. The 30-year bond rose 16/32 to 128 1/32 and its yield fell to 3.05 percent from 3.08 percent.

The three-month Treasury bill's yield was 0.04 percent, up from 0.01 percent but still indicating high levels of demand for safe, short-term assets. The discount rate was 0.02 percent.

As investors swarm to government debt, they are also starting to snap up mortgage-backed securities -- which is helping actual mortgage rates fall -- and some are buying high-grade corporate debt again.

But speculative grade, or junk, bonds are seeing demand tumble even further.

"One of the things I'm a little worried about with high yields is it's a self-sustaining situation," Ablin said. A company's ability to get new funding is reliant on their rating, and their rating is reliant on their financial health. There's a worry, Ablin said, that the junk bond market "collapses on itself."

Over the past month, bonds for investment-grade companies have gained more than 4 percent, according to the iShares Investment Grade Bond Fund, but junk bonds have fallen more than 11 percent, according to the Lehman High Yield Bond Exchange Traded Fund.

And when prices fall, rates rise, making it more expensive for the companies to issue debt. Standard & Poor's said Friday that speculative-grade rates, as compared to Treasury rates, broke through records Thursday, surpassing 17 percentage points.

About half of all rated companies have a junk rating.


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Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Serbian Currency Hits All Time Low Against Euro


Serbia's currency on Wednesday dropped to an all-time low against the euro despite repeated central bank interventions to support it on foreign exchange markets.
The dinar traded down at 90.59 per euro -- from highs of 75.75 a euro on Aug. 7 -- even though the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) on Tuesday sold euro10 million ($12.7 million) on financial markets to offset the strong demand for foreign currencies.

The NBS sold more than euro600 million to buy dinars on the foreign exchange market since late September to stop the fall of the national currency, triggered by the global economic crisis and worries over Serbia's economy.
"We are not spending foreign currency reserves, but withdrawing dinars" from the market, Serbia's central bank Governor Radovan Jelasic said Wednesday.

Since late September, the dinar has fallen about 15 percent against the euro and 25 percent against the dollar. On Wednesday, the Serbian currency for the first time broke through the psychologically important barrier of 90 dinars per euro.

Economists say the currency's slide is caused by the reduced influx of foreign capital through credit and investment, the growth of risk premiums, the imbalance between supply and demand, and panic withdrawals of foreign currencies from private savings accounts.

Serbs have withdrawn about euro1 billion from their bank accounts since October.

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ADP Employment Report Shows Most Job Losses Since 1991

The ADP employment report for November showed that the private sector reduced their payrolls by 250,000 which were the most since November, 2001. Goods producing firms led by dropping 158,000 jobs as manufacturing activity has grinded to a halt. Indeed, the forecast for the Non-farm payrolls report is expected to show total job losses for the month at 325,000. However, given the private sector over shot its initial forecast by 45,000 the total losses could be greater.

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